Hong Kong’s consumer price inflation remained notably moderate in October 2025, largely echoing the contained price environment observed throughout the year. The Composite Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered a modest 1.2% year-on-year increase, slightly advancing from the 1.1% recorded in September. Crucially, when neutralizing the effect of government-mandated one-off relief measures, the core underlying inflation rate held steady at 1.0% month-over-month, underscoring stable domestic and external cost pressures across the economy.
Detailed Price Movement Breakdown
Analysis of recent data reveals that inflation remains well within manageable levels, driven by both market dynamics and specific sector fluctuations. Seasonally adjusted figures indicated that the average monthly rise in the Composite CPI slowed slightly to 0.1% for the three months ending in October, down from 0.2% recorded in the preceding three-month period ending in September. This trend suggests easing short-term momentum in general price increases.
Varied Consumer Impact
The impact of inflation diverged across different household spending groups, categorized by income level. For lower-income households (represented by CPI(A)), the unadjusted inflation rate was 1.4% in October, moderating from 1.5% in September. Conversely, middle-income groups (CPI(B)) saw an increase to 1.1% from 0.9%, while higher-income groups (CPI(C)) registered 1.0%, up from 0.8% the prior month.
Stripping away government intervention, the core pressure on these groups was remarkably consistent in October: 0.9% for CPI(A), and 1.0% for both CPI(B) and CPI(C), indicating a near-uniform core inflation experience across income brackets.
Sectoral Changes
While overall inflation was low, certain consumer categories experienced significant price shifts on an annual basis:
- Increases: The highest inflation was observed in transport costs (3.1%), followed by alcoholic drinks and tobacco (2.0%), and miscellaneous services (2.0%). Housing costs (1.6%) and expenses for meals out and takeaway food (1.3%) also contributed to the upward pressure.
- Declines: Several key non-essential categories saw price deflation. Clothing and footwear prices dropped sharply by 4.7%, while durable goods fell by 3.3%. Essential utilities like electricity, gas, and water costs saw a marginal decrease of 0.3%.
Consistent Annual Trends
Looking at the broader context of the fiscal year, the Composite CPI rose 1.5% during the first 10 months of 2025 compared to the year before. The core inflation measure, excluding relief packages, registered a slightly lower, though closely clustered, average of 1.1% over this same period.
For the 12 months leading up to October 2025, the Composite CPI averaged an increase of 1.4% compared to the preceding year. When excluding the one-off relief, the average annual underlying inflation rate stood at 1.1% across this 12-month span.
A Government representative confirmed that the current economic climate is characterized by low underlying inflation, noting that local cost drivers remain mild and that risks emanating from external global price trends are largely contained. This stability supports the prevailing forecast that overall inflation will likely remain subdued throughout the near term, providing a predictable cost environment for local businesses and consumers alike.
Given the current trajectory, economic analysts anticipate that policymakers will continue to focus on maintaining this cost stability while monitoring global supply chain disruptions that could potentially drive up import prices in the future. Consumers, meanwhile, should be aware of the persistent deflation in sectors like clothing, potentially offering saving opportunities despite rising transport and service costs.